GBP/USD Analysis For Mon June 3, 2024
GBP/USD Price Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is facing downward pressure as it approaches a critical support level at $1.2700. Traders need to exercise caution in the upcoming sessions, as holding above this level is crucial for maintaining the bullish trend. The next main target for the bullish scenario is set at $1.2893. However, if the price breaks below $1.2700 and sustains this position, it could lead to additional negative pressure, pushing the price towards $1.2630 and potentially $1.2580 before any positive attempt can be expected.
Key Levels:
Support: $1.2670
Resistance: $1.2830
Trend Forecast: Bullish
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Economic News Impacting GBP/USD
Several economic events scheduled for today could influence GBP/USD's movement. Traders should keep an eye on these data releases for potential market-moving information:
UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): This high-impact data, expected later today, could provide insights into the health of the UK manufacturing sector. Any deviations from expectations (previous: 51.2, forecast: 51.3) could significantly impact GBP/USD.
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): Also a high-impact event, this data release (previous: 50.9, forecast: 50) will provide a snapshot of the US manufacturing sector, influencing USD strength and, consequently, GBP/USD movements.
EUR/USD Forecast Update: June 3, 2024
EUR/USD Price Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is currently under strong selling pressure, with all major technical indicators and moving averages signaling a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and other key indicators suggest further declines are likely. As of the latest analysis, all major moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, MA100, MA200) indicate sell signals, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Technical Indicators:
RSI (14): 39.273 (Sell)
MACD (12,26): 0 (Neutral)
ADX (14): 29.533 (Sell)
Williams %R: -83.076 (Oversold)
CCI (14): -216.2909 (Oversold)
Moving Averages:
MA5: 1.0841 (Sell)
MA10: 1.0847 (Sell)
MA20: 1.0848 (Sell)
MA50: 1.0841 (Sell)
MA100: 1.0838 (Sell)
MA200: 1.0840 (Sell)
Pivot Points:
S3: 1.082
S2: 1.0826
S1: 1.083
Pivot Point: 1.0836
R1: 1.084
R2: 1.0846
R3: 1.085
Trend Forecast: Strong Sell
Economic News Impacting EUR/USD
Today's economic calendar features numerous events that could affect the EUR/USD pair:
Eurozone GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1): Expected to provide insights into the overall economic health of the Eurozone (previous: -1.1%, forecast: -1.3%). A high-impact release scheduled for later today.
Eurozone Retail Sales YoY (Apr): Another critical indicator of consumer spending and economic activity (previous: 2.3%, forecast: 4.3%).
HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May): Various releases throughout the day, with several high-impact PMI readings expected to influence the EUR's strength.
Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is currently testing a significant support level at $1.2700. Holding above this level is crucial for the continuation of the bullish trend. The expected trading range for today is between $1.2670 and $1.2830, with a primary bullish target at $1.2893. Failure to hold above $1.2700 could lead to a decline towards $1.2630 and $1.2580.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair continues to exhibit strong bearish signals across multiple technical indicators. With all moving averages indicating a sell and key indicators such as RSI and Williams %R in oversold territory, the pair is likely to face continued downward pressure. The expected trading range is between the pivot point at 1.0836 and support levels down to 1.082.
Key Technical Indicators
GBP/USD:
RSI (14): Indicates whether the asset is overbought or oversold.
MACD: Measures momentum and trend direction.
ADX: Indicates the strength of the trend.
Williams %R: Identifies overbought or oversold conditions.
CCI (14): Measures deviation from the average price.
GBP/USD and EUR/USD Forecast and Analysis - June 3, 2024
GBP/USD Forecast Update: June 3, 2024
GBP/USD Price Analysis
As of today, the GBP/USD currency pair is experiencing negative pressure, suggesting a potential test of the key support level at $1.2700. This level is crucial as it serves as the threshold for maintaining a bullish trend for the day. Holding above $1.2700 is essential for the price to aim for its next significant target at $1.2893. However, if the price breaks below $1.2700 and remains under this level, it could face additional negative pressure, potentially driving the price towards $1.2630 and $1.2580 before any new positive attempts.
Expected Scenario
Bullish Continuation: If GBP/USD manages to hold above $1.2700, it is likely to resume the bullish trend, with $1.2893 as the next main target.
Bearish Scenario: A break below $1.2700 could result in further declines, targeting $1.2630 and subsequently $1.2580.
Expected Trading Range
The expected trading range for today is between $1.2670 (support) and $1.2830 (resistance). The overall trend forecast for the day remains bullish, provided the $1.2700 support holds.
EUR/USD Analysis: Strong Sell
The EUR/USD currency pair is currently exhibiting a strong sell signal across various technical indicators and moving averages. This suggests a bearish outlook for the pair in the short term.
Technical Indicators Summary
Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14): 39.273 - Sell
Stochastic Oscillator (STOCH, 9,6): 48.249 - Neutral
Stochastic RSI (STOCHRSI, 14): 0 - Oversold
MACD (12,26): 0 - Neutral
Average Directional Index (ADX, 14): 29.533 - Sell
Williams %R: -83.076 - Oversold
Commodity Channel Index (CCI, 14): -216.2909 - Oversold
Average True Range (ATR, 14): 0.0008 - Less Volatility
Highs/Lows (14): -0.0012 - Sell
Ultimate Oscillator: 47.036 - Sell
Rate of Change (ROC): -0.161 - Sell
Bull/Bear Power (13): -0.0037 - Sell
Moving Averages Summary
MA5: Simple - 1.0841 (Sell), Exponential - 1.0839 (Sell)
MA10: Simple - 1.0847 (Sell), Exponential - 1.0843 (Sell)
MA20: Simple - 1.0848 (Sell), Exponential - 1.0845 (Sell)
MA50: Simple - 1.0841 (Sell), Exponential - 1.0843 (Sell)
MA100: Simple - 1.0838 (Sell), Exponential - 1.0839 (Sell)
MA200: Simple - 1.0840 (Sell), Exponential - 1.0839 (Sell)
Pivot Points
Classic: S3 - 1.082, S2 - 1.0826, S1 - 1.083, Pivot Points - 1.0836, R1 - 1.084, R2 - 1.0846, R3 - 1.085
Fibonacci: S3 - 1.0826, S2 - 1.083, S1 - 1.0832, Pivot Points - 1.0836, R1 - 1.084, R2 - 1.0842, R3 - 1.0846
Camarilla: S3 - 1.0832, S2 - 1.0833, S1 - 1.0834, Pivot Points - 1.0836, R1 - 1.0836, R2 - 1.0837, R3 - 1.0838
Woodie's: S3 - 1.082, S2 - 1.0826, S1 - 1.083, Pivot Points - 1.0836, R1 - 1.084, R2 - 1.0846, R3 - 1.085
DeMark's: S1 - 1.0828, Pivot Points - 1.0835, R1 - 1.0839
Economic Calendar Events: Monday, June 3, 2024
The following are key economic events scheduled for June 3, 2024, which may impact the GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs:
EUR - June Bank Holiday: No significant impact expected.
EUR - Retail Sales YoY (April): Previous: 4.3%, Forecast: 4.9%, Actual: 2.3% - Lower-than-expected retail sales could weigh on the euro.
EUR - NEVI Manufacturing PMI (May): Previous: 51.3, Forecast: 51.5, Actual: 52.5 - A higher PMI indicates stronger manufacturing activity, which is positive for the euro.
EUR - GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1): Previous: -1.6%, Forecast: -1.3%, Actual: -1.1% - Better-than-expected GDP growth can support the euro.
EUR - GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1): Previous: 0.1%, Forecast: 0.2%, Actual: 0.1% - Mixed economic signals.
EUR - Tourist Arrivals YoY (April): Previous: 21%, Forecast: 15%, Actual: 8.3% - Lower tourist arrivals may negatively impact the euro.
EUR - HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May): Various releases throughout the day with mixed results, generally lower than previous readings, indicating potential weakness in manufacturing.
EUR - Unemployment Rate (May): Previous: 6.8%, Forecast: 6.5%, Actual: 6.4% - Lower unemployment is positive for the euro.
GBP - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): Previous: 49.1, Forecast: 51.3, Actual: 51.2 - A higher PMI suggests improved manufacturing conditions in the UK, which can support the GBP.
USD - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): Previous: 50, Forecast: 50.9 - Manufacturing data in the US can influence USD movements.
Trading Insights
GBP/USD: Traders should watch the $1.2700 support level closely. Holding above this level will likely maintain the bullish trend, targeting $1.2893. A break below could signal further declines to $1.2630 and $1.2580.
EUR/USD: The pair shows strong sell signals across most technical indicators. Economic data releases, particularly GDP growth rates and manufacturing PMI figures, will be crucial for the euro. A sustained sell-off could drive the pair lower, aligning with the strong sell signals from technical analysis.
Today's trading for GBP/USD hinges on the $1.2700 support level. Maintaining above this level could lead to a bullish trend continuation, while a break below may result in further declines. For EUR/USD, the strong sell signals from technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, with key economic data likely to influence further movements. Traders should stay updated with the latest economic releases and technical analysis to make informed trading decisions.
Stay tuned for more updates and insights on the forex market. Happy trading!